Determinants of the probability of micro-business robbery in the Monterrey metropolitan area

Abstract

This paper analyzes the determining factors of the probability of robbery to micro-businesses before they reach their first five years of activities. The structural characteristics, location and neighborhood experienced by these micro-businesses in the Monterrey metropolitan area during the cohort from January 2016 to December 2017 are studied. The study participants were 1,657 micro-businesses that are registered in the business incubator of the Center for Business Development of the Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon. The information collected is analyzed through the survival analysis method and modeled with Cox's proportional hazards regression. Among the main findings is that the micro-businesses most likely to suffer a robbery are those that are in the commerce sector due to neighborhood characteristics. In the same way, micro-businesses in which preventive measures are used as security mechanisms have high levels of survival. Additionally, the risk of suffering a robbery differs according to the number of employees in the micro-business, finding an inverse relationship between the size (measured with the number of employees) and the risk rate.