Volatilidad macroeconómica y desigualdad. Venezuela, 1960-2012. El canal de la inversión

Abstract

The volatility of economic growth has a negative impact on social welfare, both because it deepens the bad distribution of income as well as the levels of consumption of persons they are reduced. The most dangerous of this phenomenon is that the probability that the lower income strata are most affected is higher, since elasticity - this household income is usually higher. Likewise, macroeconomic volatility and poor economic performance have an important role to explain inequality and economic instability. In this context, the volatility of the rate of private investment and unemployment can give an idea of the most important channels through which macroeconomic shocks and the volatility of economic growth are expressed. Given the above, the objective of the present work is to establish the dynamics of macroeconomic volatility and inequality through the channel of investment in Venezuela for the period 1960-2012. The methodology determine it the dynamics is based cointegrated vector autoregressive models  VARC, allowing sketching a model well specified in the presence of nonstationary variables. This implies that a stochastic formulation of economic phenomena through a VARC allows encompassing, in general, most of the economic assumptions without that the statistical properties of the data lost.